The Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA) recently released a report decrying “Illinois’ poor economic performance.” The report compared Illinois’ economy to the economies of other states, using four key metrics:
- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Illinois—long the economic powerhouse of the Midwest—has lagged behind its peers, the report notes, observing that “Illinois’ economy is growing slower than most other states.”
Following the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 shutdowns, Illinois’ economic growth has been an anemic 2.8%. When measured against other states, the report ranked Illinois as 46th in terms of growth with its economy even slipping into negative-growth range in the first quarter of 2024.
- Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Illinois has also underperformed when it comes to creating jobs. While other states have significantly exceeded their pre-COVID jobs numbers, Illinois’ total nonfarm payroll jobs have lagged the national growth rate. The report notes:
“The U.S. now has just over 6.2 million more jobs than in February 2020, representing 4.1% growth. Illinois, on the other hand, has barely surpassed its pre-COVID-19 level, with approximately 14,000 more jobs in May 2024 than in February 2020, equating to only 0.2% growth. This ranks Illinois 45th in the nation.”
- Unemployment Rate
Illinois’ unemployment has remained stubbornly above its peers for years. As the report observed:
“In May 2024, preliminary data indicates that Illinois’ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.9%, which is 0.9% higher than the U.S. average of 4.0%, ranking 47th among the states and the District of Columbia. Over the last year, Illinois’ unemployment rate increased by 0.7 percentage points, from 4.2% to 4.9%. This increase is higher than the average state increase of 0.4% and the national increase of 0.3%.”
- Total Personal Income
Illinois’ personal income growth has also lagged national trends. From the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, personal income in Illinois grew at a 3.7% rate, trailing the national rate of 4.4%, according to CGFA. The report also notes that Illinois’s personal income growth ranked 46th compared to other states since the economic disruptions resulting from the handling of COVID-19.
CGFA operates under the authority of a bipartisan commission of twelve legislators. It is tasked to perform a number of economic and research tasks on behalf of the Illinois General Assembly.
