All 134 Minnesota House seats, future of DFL Trifecta at stake
On November 5, small business owners like you will help decide the path forward for our state and country. While the presidential race gets the bulk of attention from the news media, down-ballot races also directly impact your business.
In the narrowly divided Minnesota Legislature, all 134 seats in the Minnesota House are up for election this year. Control of the state house will come down to less than two dozen competitive districts.
There is also one special election in the Minnesota Senate – an important one, as it will decide control of that chamber.
Check out NFIB MN PAC’s 2024 Legislative Endorsements: Round I, Round II, Round III.
In Part One, we looked at key legislative races in Greater Minnesota. This time, we’ll look at the most competitive races in the Twin Cities suburbs.
Democrats currently control the governor’s office and the Minnesota Legislature, with Gov. Walz and the Democratic–Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) House taking control in 2018 and the DFL Senate winning the majority in 2022. Over the past six years, Democrats have continuously gained ground in the Twin Cities suburbs while holding on to just enough seats in Greater Minnesota.
To maintain control of the House, Democrats will likely need to continue gaining ground in the suburbs.
Meanwhile, the most likely path for Republicans is to continue making gains in rural areas and win back a few suburban seats that have trended away in recent years – while also holding onto seats in both regions that were narrowly won two years ago.
Senate District 45 Special Election – Deciding Seat in Minnesota Senate
Senate District 45 encompasses most of the communities surrounding Lake Minnetonka, and stretches from St. Bonifacius and Minnetrista in the west to Minnetonka and Wayzata in the east. Prior to 2022, this seat was split between two different Senate districts – a very conservative one to the west and a moderately liberal district to the east.
In June 2022, DFL State Senator Kelly Morrison resigned from this seat to focus on her run for Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District, which spans much of the western Twin Cities.
Running to replace Morrison are Republican Kathleen Fowke (Tonka Bay) and Democrat Ann Johnson Stewart (Wayzata).
Fowke is a realtor and small business owner who ran for the seat in 2022. Fowke scored 100% on the NFIB MN PAC Candidate Questionnaire and is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC. She has a strong track record of pro-small business positions.
Johnson Stewart is a civil engineer and small business owner who served in the Minnesota Senate from 2021 to 2022. During her lone term, Johnson Stewart scored 38% on the NFIB MN Voting Record – a mixed bag that included opposing market-based health insurance premium savings and a reduction in income taxes for small business owners.
During the 2022 Redistricting Cycle, Johnson Stewart was paired in the same district with Morrison – then a state house member who had announced a run for state senate – and opted not to run for re-election. Despite having represented part of the current Senate District 45 during that term, much of it is new to Johnson Stewart.
While President Biden carried the district with 58% in 2020, statewide Republicans fared a bit better in 2022.
Two factors suggest Fowke can make this a competitive race: i) Fowke’s overperformance compared to the top of the ticket in 2022, and ii) Johnson Stewart’s lack of name ID in the western half of the district – an area Morrison represented in the Minnesota House for two terms.
Twin Cities: DFL-Held House Seats
House District 32B (Blaine): First-term Democrat Rep. Matt Norris is seeking re-election in this northern suburban district. Norris is an attorney and former nonprofit director who won by 2.5% in 2022.
Norris scored just 14% on the 2023-24 NFIB MN Voting Record, supporting $10 billion in new taxes over the next four years and burdensome new mandates on small business owners.
He’ll face Republican Alex Moe, who works for the Anoka County Court Administrator and is a law school student. Moe scored 100% on the NFIB MN PAC Candidate Questionnaire and is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC.
President Biden narrowly won this district with 52% in 2020, and Governor Walz received 51.5% in 2022.
House District 35B (Coon Rapids): Longtime state Rep. Jerry Newton is retiring this year, leaving open one the most competitive districts in the state. In 2022, Newton won by 1.5% – returning to the Minnesota House after six years in the state senate.
This year, Republican Steve Pape will face off with Democrat Kari Rehrauer.
Pape is an engineer and small business owner who scored highly on the NFIB MN PAC Candidate Questionnaire. He is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC.
Rehrauer, a teacher and Coon Rapids City Council member, lost a close race for state senate in 2022. She is endorsed by a variety of activist groups and government unions that favor higher taxes and more unfunded mandates.
President Biden and Governor Walz each won this district by ~4%, while Republican candidates for State Auditor and Minnesota Attorney General carried it by ~4%.
House District 48B (Chaska, Chanhassen): First-term DFL Rep. Lucy Rehm is running for re-election against Republican Caleb Steffenhagen. Rehm won a tight race (+2%) in 2022, becoming the first Democrat to represent the area in decades.
In the Legislature, Rehm scored poorly on the NFIB MN Voting Record (14%). She supported major new tax increases, new fees on energy use to subsidize electric vehicles, and new mandates on small business owners. She previously served on the Chanhassen City Council.
Steffenhagen is a teacher and small business owner who runs a custom milling business in Chaska. This is his first bid for public office.
President Biden took this district by 11% in 2020, while Governor Walz won it by 9.5% in 2022.
House District 54A (Shakopee): DFL Rep. Brad Tabke is seeking his third term on his fourth try for the Minnesota House. His previous three races have been close contests, winning in 2018, losing in 2020, and coming back in 2022.
Tabke scored just 14% on the 2023-24 NFIB MN Voting Record. During his time in office, he has supported numerous tax increases and unfunded mandates that directly impact small businesses.
Republican Aaron Paul is seeking office for the first time. A Bloomington Police Officer, Paul served as a school resource officer for several years. He scored 100% on the NFIB NM PAC Candidate Questionnaire and is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC.
President Biden won this seat by 8% in 2020, and Governor Walz took it by 9% in 2022.
Twin Cities: Republican-Held House Seats
District 36A (Lino Lakes, North Oaks, White Bear Twp): After winning a tight race (+3%) in 2022, first-term Republican Rep. Elliott Engen is seeking re-election in this competitive East Metro seat.
Engen scored 100% on the NFIB MN Voting Record in 2023-24, siding with small business owners against tax increases, red tape, and unfunded mandates. He is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC.
He’ll face Democrat and nonprofit healthcare director Janelle Calhoun.
President Biden won this district by 2.5% in 2020, and Governor Walz won it by 3% in 2022. Despite that, Republican candidates for Attorney General and Auditor comfortably carried this district (8% and 7%, respectively).
District 41A (Lake Elmo, Afton, Cottage Grove): This seat is vacant following the retirement of first-term Rep. Mark Wiens, who is running for the Washington County Commission.
Republican Wayne Johnson won a competitive primary in August and will face off with Afton City Council Member Lucia Wroblewski.
Johnson is a small business owner who runs an HVAC business in the East Metro. He scored 100% on the NFIB MN PAC Candidate Questionnaire and is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC. Johnson previously served on the Washington County Commission and is known as a pragmatist.
Wrobleski is a retired St. Paul Police officer. Her campaign is backed by numerous activist groups and government unions that favor higher taxes and more unfunded mandates.
President Biden won this district by 4% in 2020, and Governor Walz won by 5% in 2022. However, Republican candidates for State Auditor and Minnesota Attorney General won by similar margins here in 2022.
District 41B (Cottage Grove, Hastings): The other half of Senate District 41 is also vacant following the retirement of first-term Republican Rep. Shane Hudella. This district was decided by just 2% in 2022.
Local small business owner and NFIB member Tom Dippel is facing off against Hastings brewery owner and city council member Jen Fox.
Dippel scored 100% on the NFIB MN PAC Candidate Questionnaire and is endorsed by NFIB MN PAC. He is the owner of Mississippi Dental Lab, a dental supply company located in Newport, MN.
This district has been in Republican hands for over two decades but has been much closer in recent years. Like the other side (41A), it was carried by President Biden and Governor Walz, while the Republican candidates for Auditor and Attorney General scored five-point victories.
District 45A (Excelsior, Tonka Bay, Mound): First-term Republican Rep. Andrew Myers is seeking re-election in this competitive West Metro seat. Since 2018, Democrats have made significant gains in this part of the Twin Cities, but Myers bucked the trend with a six-point victory in 2022.
Myers is an attorney, small business owner, and volunteer director at a local food shelf. He scored 100% on the 2023-24 NFIB MN Voting Record and sponsored pro-small business tax and regulatory reform proposals that were backed by NFIB MN. Myers is endorsed by the NFIB MN PAC.
His opponent is DFLer Tracey Breazeale, a Minnetonka Beach City Council member and former corporate executive.
In 2022, Governor Walz carried the district by 1.5%, while Republican candidates for Attorney General and State Auditor won by 9%.
